With Doug Ford’s victory, a populist wave sweeps into Ontario

Nga: Adam Radwanski

After years of speculation, Canada is about to find out what happens when the populist wave that has swept much of the Western world overtakes one of its major political parties.

The bizarre manner in which Doug Ford was crowned the leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservatives on Saturday – his victory rumoured for many hours, but delayed by procedural challenges until most people attending the leadership announcement had been kicked out of the suburban conference hall where it was held – should not obscure the stunning change it brings to the options facing voters in a spring election.

Only a couple of months ago, the looming campaign in the country's largest province seemed set to offer a change of face but not a dramatic change in direction – former leader Patrick Brown determinedly trying to present a Red Tory-ism that would ease the minds of centrist voters tired of Kathleen Wynne's Liberals, but worried about spending cuts or a lack of modernism in social or environmental policy.

Now, the election promises to be something much more important than that: A referendum on whether Ontarians are prepared to embrace a style of government more visceral and unpredictable and resistant to political and institutional norms than any they have had before.

Mr. Ford is not Donald Trump, to whom comparisons will be made on a daily basis between now and when Ontarians' cast their ballots on June 7. Skepticism of immigration, for instance, is not part of his formula; his late brother Rob enjoyed considerable support from new Canadians during his successful run for Toronto's mayoralty, and so did Doug in his unsuccessful bid to replace him. And he was certainly much less bombastic, while seeking the PC nomination, than was Mr. Trump during his ascent to the U.S. presidency.

But everything we know about Mr. Ford, as a politician, makes the parallels too numerous to overlook. There is the almost proud ignorance of the intricacies of public policy; the simple sloganeering and attack lines against opponents (right down to his campaign's apparent attempt through social media to label Ms. Elliott "crooked Christine"); the enthusiastic dabbling in social conservatism despite not presenting as the most devout of Christians; the habitual disdain toward the media; the reputation as a bully, including toward his own staff and behind-the-scenes allies.

And more importantly, there are the parallels between what he offers, and what is offered not just by Mr. Trump but by populists in through much of Europe and elsewhere: validation to those who feel left behind by economic or social change, and believe that corrupt "elites" across all mainstream political parties are indifferent to their struggles.

That was evident even in how he campaigned for the PC leadership, particularly in the latter stages as his campaign suggested that party higher-ups were conspiring to keep someone like him from the leadership. You could see it, too, in the way he wore his lack of policy depth as a badge of honour – the implication being that someone like him, more than the coddled bureaucrats and political lifers and ivory-tower elites normally around government, could through force of will impose the common-sense solutions to return Ontario to past glories.

As relatively mild as he was when speaking publicly about his opponents during this leadership campaign, his past form suggests he will try to channel voters' dislike of Ms. Wynne in a much harsher tone than the other leadership candidates would have. And if he winds up in the Premier's office, what we know about him from the municipal level and the building of the Ford brand suggests that he will be much less beholden to orthodoxies – about what government must do, about how it communicates, about how decisions are made at the cabinet table – than anyone who has occupied it before.

There is really no way of knowing how all that will play with voters who did not participate in the Tories' leadership process. Yes, Rob Ford managed to win in Toronto – seemingly a less hospitable market for this type of conservatism than other parts of the province – and Doug Ford didn't come that far from victory there himself. But being elected to lead a municipality with a weak-mayor system is nothing like being entrusted to run the country's second-largest government.

The Liberals undoubtedly feel better about trying to overcome their extremely low approval numbers against Mr. Ford than they would have against Ms. Elliott or Caroline Mulroney, and Andrea Horwath's New Democrats surely see an opening for themselves as a less volatile alternative. Recent polls have suggested he is viewed negatively by an unusually high number of voters for an incoming opposition leader. And among other potential turn-offs for voters Mr. Brown was courting, notably suburban women who have been pivotal to the Liberals' electoral success, is Mr. Ford's expressed willingness to reopen the abortion debate and other typically third-rail social issues – something he may be hard-pressed to drop after social-conservative candidate Tanya Granic Allen proved kingmaker.

But Ontario is hardly immune from factors that have powered populists elsewhere. There are plenty of towns where traditional jobs in manufacturing or otherwise have dried up, and there is angst about a perceived shrinking of the middle class and the cost of living, and there are many people who believe that urban liberals are imposing their values – in the form of everything from wind turbines to sex-education curriculum – on everyone else.

There hasn't really been a test yet here of what a politician willing and able to tap into those feelings might be able to achieve electorally, nor what kind of a government it would produce. It's led to considerable smugness, among the sorts of people Mr. Ford would dismiss as elites, when casting their eyes south of the border. They shouldn't be feeling any such comfort the next three months, and very possibly well beyond.

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